OR/MS Today, February 2006 "Probability Management" By Dr. Sam Savage (Stanford), Stefan Scholtes (Cambridge) & Daniel Zweidler (Shell) Describes how to avoid the Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging. Discusses the application to Shell's exploration portfolio.   Click here to read. AnalyCorp, February 18, 2005 Bayesian Thinking By Dr. Sam Savage This type of analysis leads to non-intuitive results in probabilistic situations.   Click here to read. Chicago Sun-Times, July 8, 2004 "Monte Carlo modeling yields magic number for retirement" By Terry Savage (no relation!) Sun-Times financial columnist Terry Savage quotes Dr. Savage in a column about "The Magic Number" and Monte Carlo Simulation.   Click here to read. OR/MS Today, June 2004 "Prices, Probabilities and Predictions" By Dr. Sam Savage With prediction markets, participants put their money where their mouths are regarding worldwide events ranging from government elections to the outbreak of war. The question is, are these markets more accurate than polls and politicians?   Click here to read. San Jose Mercury News, June 3, 2004 "Predictive Power" By Dr. Sam Savage "As I watched last week's political equivalent of ``Monday Night Football'' -- this one a match-up between George W. Bush and the (uninvited) Iraqi insurgents -- I pondered public reaction. It didn't take long to find out how the president's speech went over, thanks to an Information Age oracle: the prediction market."   Click here to read. OR/MS Today, August 2003 "Weapons of Mass Instruction - Connecting the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants" By Dr. Sam Savage Dr. Savage has coined the term "Mindle" as a handle for the mind that assists in grasping complex concepts. This article discusses the experiential approach to teaching analytical subjects.   Click here to read. Training Magazine Jan. 03 "In Search of Subject Matter Excellence" by Liz Simpson What do you get when you cross a management scientist with a failed folk singer? The answer: Stanford professor Sam Savage. Click here for complete excerpt discussing Dr. Savage's approach to executive education. Financial Planning Magazine Dec. 02 "The Risk in Models" by Dr. Sam Savage Uncertain markets highlight the over-reliance of our risk models on historical data.   Click here to read. CIO Magazine Dec. 02 "When Good People Make Bad Decisions" by Michael Schrage Article on Monte Carlo Simulation in which Dr. Savage is quoted.   Click here to read. Harvard Business Review Nov. 02 "The Flaw of Averages" by Dr. Sam Savage Decisions Based on Average Numbers are Wrong on Average. Sorry, this article is not free, but you can learn more here. Dr. Savage's letter to the SEC concerning financial disclosures, July '02 Dr. Sam Savage Dr. Savage points out that the SEC's latest release "would only further complicate a seriously flawed system."   Click here to read. Some Gratuitous Inflammatory Remarks on the Accounting Industry by Dr. Sam Savage   Click here to read the PDF file. Business Week Jan. 22 '01 "A Better Way to Size Up Your Nest Egg" by Chris Farrell Dr. Savage is quoted. Discusses the trend of using simulation to model retirement portfolios.   Click here to read. San Jose Mercury News, October 8, 2000 "The Flaw of Averages" by Dr. Sam Savage Discusses the fallacy of assuming average returns on a retirement portfolio. Simple annuity models are available for download.   Click here to read. "Understanding Uncertainty Through Simulation" Dr. Savage's html-based tutorial on the basics of Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel.   Click here for the tutorial.